Probabilistic aspects of renewable energy using in the Chernobyl Zone
The exclusion zone of Chernobyl allows for the placement of significant wind and solar power plants. These facilities appear localized in relation to the grid, despite the fact that there is network infrastructure and high-voltage power lines needed for transmission of electricity to the national network. However, the use of renewables often raises questions about the impact on the reliability of the grid. This applies to balance of power consumption, stability of dynamic processes in power systems, frequency control capabilities, and so on. In these processes, the determining factor is sensitive to current changes in capacity and scope of irregular changes of power generation. Close assessment of "strength" of the network is performed from these factors. The sensitivity to voltage changes of power in the node connecting RES has also been taken into account.
Combining of the different sources of energy used to ensure the stability of generation. Determining the optimal configuration of complex local power system requires mathematical modeling. A common method is simulation, which allows us to predict various possible combinations of data, using indicators such as average values (mathematical expectations), dispersion, allowable rate of change, distribution of probability. This approach takes into account statistics from different time averaging - monthly, daily, current (fixed intervals of a few minutes). Fundamentally important in this presentation is an opportunity to highlight the estimated component in the changing behavior of RES capacity. Timely forecasting and planning (for the current day and a day ahead) of renewable energy allow us to optimize the structure of a combined power and to achieve economically satisfactory results, as well the implementation of environmental requirements and the needs to ensure reliable operation of the network. Multi-objective optimization is preferred because the presence of diverse requirements, and offered mathematical modeling of complex power system is an efficient way to achieve the goal.
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