TO OPTIMAL COMBINATION OF WIND AND SOLAR ELECTRICITY
The purpose of the paper is to determine the optimal ratio of different sources of renewable energy in hybrid power systems, based on the estimation of the random component of power generation and electricity consumption. For this purpose short-term power fluctuations caused by natural changes in solar and wind energy in the time frame of less than an hour are considered. Such changes affect the performance of frequency and voltage regulation, as well as the stability of power supply systems. The subject of the study is the proportion of wind and solar generation with its overall level of electricity consumption and the point of optimization – the variability of the total generated power. The key feature of the work is the synchronous alignment of the levels of energy generation and consumption by different local consumers. Methods of research are a mathematical model of a combination of random processes and the direct use of experimental statistical data. The chosen method of optimization is the construction of the response surface, which provides the visualization of the results with satisfactory accuracy. If necessary, the result is specified by the method of dichotomy. The outputs of the study are compared with different weather factors, so the data of the different seasons were examines. The obtained dependencies also allow to estimate the influence of energy efficiency of wind and solar power engineering as a technological factor. Among the important results is when drawing up the schedules of the power system it is possible to estimate the influence of the prediction accuracy of generation and consumption capacities on the energy balance: the presence of a daily forecast allows to increase the power of RES in 1.5 times, while maintaining the level of variability. The existence of optimal ratios of the WPP and PV power with the minimum general variability of the energy balance is established. In Ukraine it is about one third of the rated power of the wind power and two thirds of the PV, but the results are significantly dependent on the season. The optimality criteria are considered, taking into account the random nature of the investigated processes, which gives the possibility of probabilistic estimation of the results. References 13, fig. 6.
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