Keywords: expert estimation, geothermal object, parameter, weighting factor, statistic, consistency


In the article analyses of parameter priority to evaluate the prospect of the geothermal objects utilization to determine the possibility and prospects of their use for the purpose of energy supply has been executed by the method of expert estimation. The geothermal object is nominal well on the basis of which possible to establishment of the geothermal energy distribution system bearing in mind the potential consumer. For expert estimation a survey questionnaire worked out and a representative group of experts was composed in the amount of 12 people. The average expert competency coefficient was 8 points on a ten-point scale. The parameters of two categories are considered. The first parameters are related to the availability of geothermal resource, the second - to the conditions of transportation and features of potential energy consumers. In total, 30 parameters were analyzed in the survey. Weighting coefficients were set for each parameter. The survey results were processed by finding arithmetic, weighted average and median scores. The degree of experts' opinions agreement on each parameter was determined by the method of finding the coefficient of variation. For the whole expert poll in general was determined by the coefficient of Kendell's concordance. The calculations showed that the consistency of expert estimates is sufficient to decide on a list of priority parameters and their weighting factors. . The obtained results can be used in the creation of the geothermal databases and in the development of a methodology for selecting prospective wells for the primary development of geothermal resources. Ref. 10, tabl. 4, fig. 5.

Author Biography

А. Barylo, Institute of Renewable Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 02094, 20А Hnata Khotkevycha St., Kyiv, Ukraine.

barylo.pngAuthor information: researcher at Geothermal Energy Department, Institute of Renewable Energy of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.
Education: Kyiv National University, Faculty of Hydrology and Engineering Geology.
Research area: renewable energy, geothermal energy, use of environmental heat.
Publications: 58.


1. Morozov Y.P., Barylo A.A. Shlyakhy vyznachennya enerhetychnoho potentsialu heotermalʹnykh dzherel enerhiyi. Ak-tualni problemy ta perspektyvy ro-zvytku heolohiyi: nauka y vy-robnytstvo. [Ways to determine the energy potential of geothermal energy sources. Actual problems and prospects of development of geology: science and production]. International Geological Odesa Forum. Kiev. UkrDGRI. 2017. Pp. 250-253. [in Ukrainian].
2. Morozov Y.P., Barylo A.A. Geothermal Energy Use, Country Update for Ukraine. European Geothermal Congress 2019 Den Haag. The Netherlands. 2019. 11-14 June. С. 1-6. [in English].
3. Ivaniuta M.M. Atlas naftovykh i hazovykh rodo-vyshch Ukrainy (v 6 t.). [Atlas of Oil and Gas Deposits of Ukraine (6 v.)]. Tsentr Yevropy. Lviv. 1998. Vol. 1-3. 1421 p. Vol. 4-5. 707 p. Vol. 6. 224 p. [in Ukrainian].
4. Gorbatenko V., Petrenko I. Metod «Delfi» ta spetsyfi-ka yoho zastosuvannya u prohnoznykh rozrobkakh. [Delphi Method and the specifics of its use in predictive engineering]. Political management. 2008. No. 6. Pp. 174-182. [in Ukrainian].
5. Rupusov V.L. Metody opredeleniya kolichestva eksper-tov. [Methods to determine a number of experts]. Bulletin of Ir-kutsk State Technical University. 2015. No. 3. Pp. 286-292. ISSN 1814-3520. [in Russian].
6. Alkhasiv A.B. Geotermalnaya energetika: problemy, resursy, tekhnologii. [Geothermal energy: problems, resources, technologies]. Moscow. Russia. Fizmatlit. 2008. 367 p. [in Rus-sian].
7. Boguslavskiy E.I., Boguslavskaya L.I. Vliyaniye ge-otermalnykh parametrov kollektorov na ekonomiku ikh razrabotki. [The influence of geothermal collector parameters on the econom-ics of their development]. Uspehi sovremennogo estestvoznaniya. Moscow. Russia. 2004. No. 4. Pp. 160-161. [in Russian].
8. Morozov Y.P., Barylo A.A. Otsinka enerhetychnoho potentsialu okremykh heotermalnykh rodovyshch Ukrayiny. [Es-timation of energy potential of individual geothermal deposits in Ukraine]. Ukraine. Kiev. Vidnovluvana energetika. 2017. No. 1. Pp. 72-79. [in Ukrainian].
9. Zakirov S.N. Teoriya i proyektirovaniye razrabotki gazovykh i gazokondensatnykh mestorozhdeniy. [Theory and design of development of gas and gas condensate fields]. Russia. Moscow. Nedra. 1989. Pp. 330–333. [in Russian].
10. Morozov Y.P. Dobycha geotermalnykh resursov i ak-kumulirovaniye teploty v podzemnykh gorizontakh. [Extraction of geothermal resources and heat storage in underground horizons]. K. Naukova dumka. 2017. 197 p. [in Russian].
11. Dzhavatov D.K., Azizov A.A. Otsenka effektivnosti bi-narnoy elektrostantsii na osnove geotermalnykh tsirkul-yatsionnykh sistem s vertikalnymi i gorizontalnymi skvazhinami. [Evaluation of the efficiency of a binary geothermal power plant based on geothermal circulation systems with vertical and horizon-tal wells]. Russia. Moscow. Energosnabzhenie i vodopodgotovka. 2019. No. 6(122). Pp. 68–73. [in Russian].
12. Mazurenko V.P. Teoriya statystyky. [Statistics Theo-ry]. Textbook. Ukraine. Kiev. Vidavniche-polIgrafIchniy tsentr “Kiyivskiy universitet”. 2006. 232 p. [in Ukrainian].

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