MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY OF WIND POWER PLANT INVESTMENT PROJECT
Important section of investment calculations is the sensitivity analysis, which allows you to put in order the initial parameters of the project according to the impact of their changes on changes in project effectiveness. A commonly used tool for sensitivity analysis is a spider chart- a set of graphs in a common coordinate system. This method of sensitivity analysis is purely graphical. It provides a clear idea of the approximate qualitative picture of sensitivity, leaving researchers without appropriate quantitative assessments and analytical constructions. In this article, the problem of sensitivity analysis of the wind farm investment project is solved by building and studying an appropriate economic and mathematical model. The model consists of a system of equations that reflects the direct and indirect relationships between the initial parameters and indicators of the wind farm investment project. Next, the system of equations is reduced to the function of all the presented parameters, to which the formulas for calculating the coefficients of elasticity are applied. The article presents the formulas for calculating the parameters of the mathematical model of the coefficients of elasticity of the net present value of the wind farm investment project and presents the results of calculations of the elasticity coefficients of the wind farm investment project. The existence of an explicit solution of the economic-mathematical model allowed to obtain explicit formulas for the coefficients of elasticity and to perform a comprehensive mathematical study of the problem. Analysis of the results of experimental calculations of elasticity coefficients showed that the economic efficiency of the wind farm investment project is most sensitive to changes Capacity factor and electricity tariffs of wind farms, and with increasing cash flow discount rate the sensitivity of the project to changes in initial parameters increases (in absolute terms). The presented results of calculations demonstrated the effectiveness of the application of elasticity coefficients for both classical and non-standard sensitivity analysis of wind farm investment projects. References 6, tables 5, fig. 3.
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