The mathematical model of probability determination technological capacity of small rivers
According to the decision of the Council of Ministers of the Energy Community, D/2012/04/MC-EnC Ukraine has committed by 2020 to reach 11 percent of the energy produced from
renewable energy sources in the total energy supply of the country.
Small hydropower sector plays an important role in achieving the objectives set by the European Community. Full-scale refinement of the hydropower potential of small
rivers on the territory of Ukraine after 1960 was not held. In recent years significantly has changed the regulatory framework of small hydropower Ukraine. Definition of technical potential of water resources of small rivers of Ukraine with the current regulatory
framework of renewable energy sources and environmental protection is an important task for contemporary scientific research.
In publication are describe highlights of the calculated research to develop a new mathematical model to estimate technical hydropower potential of small rivers that considers environmental
restrictions on the use of water flow and criteria of ecological value areas. A mathematical model based on the provisions of the basic theoretical hydropower and application of probability of three parametric gamma distribution expenses of water flow in a form of Krytskoho-Menkelya with the determination of a vertical profile by digital mapping methods.
There has been carried out of calculations study of the hydropower potential of small rivers in three levels (25, 50 and 75%) of a provision of water consumption that covers possible
modes of water use for power generation by small hydropower plants in the 1, 2 and 3 units with an additional half-capacity unit. Was found the disproportionate change in the production of electricity of small hydropower plant from a change in the installed capacity of hydraulic units for different values of the flow sufficiency and environmental restrictions on water use. There has been substantiated application as a measure of the hydropower potential of a section of small river or small hydropower plants, the value of annual electricity production, and installed capacity is recommended as an additional indicator to determine the level
of investment that was normalized in the state standard DSTU 7501:2014 “Hydropower. Small hydropower plants. Terms and definitions”.
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